1 goal strategy
MattGG
Starter
Posts: 8
Registered: 2018-09-19 12:58:42
Hi
First of all. My English its not the best, so be understanding :)

My system is based on minimum of one goal to be scored at certain point of the match

My basic rules are:
- only 1st half
- avoid leagues you are not interested in - in my example whole south America, Russian leagues, African leagues, most of the Asian leagues as well. You have to make a small research in which league you see at least some value. I'm sticking to Europe, internationals and friendlies
- all matches are based on notifications
- so far i don't do weekends, just weekdays
- never consider a match where is a denied penalty, or early goal scored :) it could play with the psychic of the players
- flat stakes

Now to the notifications. I expect goals to be scored at matches, where is something going on. Therefore i set up 4 notifications, where I consider these criteria
- set a momentum of 15-20 minutes
- where there wasn't a goals scored for at least 10 minutes
- good amount of shots ON target
- good amount OFF target
- corners
- set the right amount of shots (on, off, on+ff), corners... in my case the best way is to have the suchlike amount of shots on each side - so you can see, that there is something going on - when for example there is 2-2 ON shots and 3-1 Off shots and some corners in the past 15-20mins , there is definitely something going on. Because it shows you, that both sides are pushing for goal and the match should have your attention... 
Tim-Wu
Newbie
Posts: 4
Registered: 2018-09-19 13:09:52
Hi MattGG!

I'm trying to fully understand your strategy. You place bets only for over 1st Half goals?

Please take screenshots of your notifications that you use. 

Then if you can say the minimum odds that you use at your flat stakes. 

And the status of last weeks, months...

Thx
inward
Starter
Posts: 12
Registered: 2018-09-19 18:58:29
How is it going Matt, you should have a quite decent sample size ? The wr and yield I mean.
serg_ka
Newbie
Posts: 2
Registered: 2018-09-19 12:00:56
there is a strategy that I want to try  - if the game is 0-0 at HT, then go for over 1.5 in the second. Or maybe over 1 if odds are acceptable. Did anyone try something like this?

With betting on the goals in either halves, if you bet on 1 half at times you start thinking that all the goals are scored in the second half and vice versa))
MattGG
Starter
Posts: 8
Registered: 2018-09-19 12:58:42
the first 4 weeks of testing brought me about 17% yield. hitrate was about 56%. minimum odd, that i consider is @2 .. sometimes it gets higher (about 37' and higher you can get more than 3,3 ...)

will post the numbers when september ends. right now im at 14%

here is one of the examples:

Game clock (<) Less than 37 min AND
Last 20 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Shots on target (>=) Equals or more than 5 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Shots off target (>=) Equals or more than 5 sum AND
Last 10 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Goals (<) Less than 1 sum
Tim-Wu
Newbie
Posts: 4
Registered: 2018-09-19 13:09:52
You said that you have 4 notifications created with different criterias? Still I don't understand you! :(
MattGG
Starter
Posts: 8
Registered: 2018-09-19 12:58:42
Let's say the one notification, which I wrote above creates you a notification. Then I have 3 more notifications. Simply because, different rules creates you different notifications. And that means, that you have more games to choose from.

Here is my next notification

Game clock (<) Less than 37 min AND
Last 10 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Goals (<) Less than 1 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Team A (Always the same team on any side) - Shots on target (>=) Equals or more than 3 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Team B (Team A opponent) - Shots on target (>=) Equals or more than 3 sum
Tim-Wu
Newbie
Posts: 4
Registered: 2018-09-19 13:09:52
I hope that you make a post where you will explain all 5 notifications... I don't fully get it. Anybody understood all clear? Is it me? Please describe all. Thx
MattGG
Starter
Posts: 8
Registered: 2018-09-19 12:58:42
Here is the rest... I had set it up only for HT... maybe you could have it also for FT.. I personally didn't
 try it for also for FT, as there was too many notifications


Game clock (<) Less than 37 min AND
Last 10 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Goals (<) Less than 1 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Team A (Always the same team on any side) - Shots off target (>=) Equals or more than 3 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Team B (Team A opponent) - Shots off target (>=) Equals or more than 3 sum


Game clock (<) Less than 37 min AND
Last 20 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Shots on target (>=) Equals or more than 4 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Shots off target (>=) Equals or more than 4 sum AND
Last 20 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Corners (>=) Equals or more than 4 sum AND
Last 10 minutes - Home + Away team (sum) - Goals (<) Less than 1 sum
inward
Starter
Posts: 12
Registered: 2018-09-19 18:58:29