Betting statistics and its importance in football.
Betting statistics, how to wage the odds and become a pro
For a newbie or a laic, betting statistics could pose a true danger and yet provide so much more insights into the football matches. If you bet without knowing the betting statistics, you are about to make a huge mistake. Why? Because betting without statistics is like fishing in the dark or driving blindfolded. Without the stats, you might overlook the head-to-head, average goals scored and conceived, psychological factors, injured players, form, change of the manager, and so much more. Betting on Manchester United under Alex Ferguson’s wand and the Manchester of the nowadays is a completely different story. Why? Both managers are proven, professionals. Mourinho, whether you like him or no, is an amazing manager. I honestly don’t like his defensive style but I can’t dispute his quality.
Furthermore, Manchester’s team is as strong as the one in the past. So why are results different? There are numerous factors but one that can’t be overlooked is the fact that the Manchester of nowadays is simply lacking chemistry. It is like Real Madrid’s team after 2002. You had Ronaldo, Zinedine, Raul, Figo, Beckham, and yet, they haven’t won a single Champions League title.
Reminiscing betting statistics
When I was in Gymnasium, I quickly became best friends with Dima. We were completely different and yet, our mind was like one. Our whole class was skipping classes and playing football. During the winter, we played inside the basketball hall. Our class was filled with great athletes and the two of us were smokers, drinkers and former athletes at the moment. We weren’t that good with football too. However, we had some interaction between us and we always played together. We played two against two on one goal, it was a handball goal. Nobody ever managed to beat us and they were all individually ten times better than the two of us. We simply synced, that is that special thing in sports. Like the current attacking trio of Eintracht Frankfurt: Jovic, Rebic and Haller. You have to understand that betting is not an easy thing to do. That is, of course, if you want to do it right. If not, simply wager your money and wave bye-bye to it. But even with proficient knowledge and experience in betting, you can still overlook some things, I know I do. What makes you different than me? But you know what, I try to learn every time and get more insights into the psychology and mathematics of soccer.
Some Stats Can Remain Hidden
For example, Red Star Belgrade played against Liverpool FC a while ago in the Champions League. I am sure you are well aware of this match. Red Star Belgrade has entered the elite for the first time after more than twenty years. It is an old European and Intercontinental Cup Winner in 1991 and 1992 respectively. However, they were a complete outsider now due to the terrible financial situation and lack of experience, especially since their losses to PSG (5:1) and Liverpool at Enfield’s (4:0). But you know what? A person that follows all of the things that have an impact on betting statistics will know that Red Star has another player at Belgrade. That player is their audience. And yes, Red Star Belgrade has beaten Liverpool FC 2:0 with two amazing goals by Milan Pavkov, a complete unknown. According to all of the stats, Red Star had nothing to do in this match but that is not completely true. They haven’t lost a single game on their stadium for over a year. Such betting statistics sometimes get overlooked when you look at other stats like the value of teams. But the question remains, how and where to start when observing the betting statistics?
The Starting Point of Betting – Understanding the Betting Statistics
The good thing about betting in sports is that it differs from casino betting. With casino games, the house always wins. When you spin a roulette wheel, there is a 1-in-37 chance of winning and you get 36-to-1 pay. As you can see, the odds are set so that the house has an advantage over the gamblers because statistically looking they are always 1 unit stronger. However, in sports, the probability differs. There are numerous factors that influence the bets so the bookkeepers base their odds based on research and betting statistics. In order to become a good sports bettor, you have to carry out your own research and identify the variables which will influence the outcome. The betting statistics football stats are numerous but the best way to start is to check the current form of the teams. So start by observing the form of the teams that you are considering to bet on. Also, if they are playing in Europe (like Champions League), check both forms.
A team might play badly in Europe. But on the other side, it might do really good in their National Championship. Furthermore, check the records between the two teams. How many times have they played against each other? When discussing head-to-head matches, you have to pay close attention to the betting statistics in soccer. Why? Simply put, there seems to be a psychological moment. Players and managers of the teams change but something remains.
For example, Tottenham Hotspur has only 9 wins against Manchester United out of 53 matches and 6 wins against Chelsea in 52 matches. Yet, against Manchester City, they have 23 wins out of 43 games. You can use our tool to check head-to-head betting statistics in Premier League or any other league. Try to play around with the idea and predict some matches, you don’t have to bet on them if you are new, take your time, bet in your mind.
Why did the soccer ball quit the team?
He was tired of being kicked around. Similarly to this, one of the things that you need to pay attention to is the number of goals that a team scores or conceives on average. The average conceded and scored goals is an important betting statistics. For example, an average number of goals scored in a match in Bundesliga is 3,69 and in Eredivisie, it is 3,34. This is an average of more than 3 goals per game. The next step is to check the matches and the number of goals that the opponents score and conceive and also their head-to-head ratio. The catch is to create your own network of betting statistics. Once you develop your mathematical approach, or simply put, your way of thinking, you’ll get results. But never stop learning.
Numbers, numbers, numbers
Statistics is important because by learning about the reliability of the system through betting statistics, we can confirm that the system does function and predict future performance. Statistically looking, it is always better to have a larger than a smaller sample because it provides more insights into the betting statistics. For example, imagine a head-to-head where the teams have played against each other 5 times or 50 times. You’ll get much more insights from the second sample. So, to approach the betting statistics from a mathematical side, we need to start with regression analysis. It is a set of processes that allows us to find a relationship between an independent and a dependent variable. Now you say what? Simply put, every bettor’s dependent variable is winning whilst the independent variable is any betting statistics. The best way to use this method is to compile a set of variables and find the ones which influence the winning factor in football matches and are not that easily discoverable by the betting public. You have to understand that this method requires some time for perfection but it is well worth it once you get a hang of it.
Looking at the stats
First, we need to start by looking at the stats. Every statistic is significant but it doesn't mean that it is vital for winning. For example, let's start with ball possession. It is a belief that ball possession determines the winner. But does it truly? In 2015/2016 Premier League season we had a surprise winner, Leicester United. And you know what, they had an average of 44,8 % of ball possession.
Greece won the UEFA Euro 2004 with less than 50 % ball possession on average. Sky Sports wrote an interesting article about ball possession. They found a correlation between the best teams of all five major European League's best teams and winning streaks. However, as they point out, when you dig a bit into the betting statistics, a completely different story emerges. This is truly important as you won't bet only on the best teams. In Premier League Season 2017/2018, out of 68 games that ended with a win (or loss, depending on how you look at it), 35 were won by the teams that had over 50% of ball possession and 33 were won by teams with less than 50% ball possession.
As you can notice, if we look at ball possession from the larger statistical pool, there really isn't a lot of difference in the win-loss ratio.You see, in football, there are a different way of opening up a team and creating chances. Counter-attacks can create even better chances than ball possession, especially nowadays with so many fast and strong players. Now, to get back to the regression analysis. We can conclude that ball possession doesn't have that much of a statistical significance as an independent variable.
If we observed only major teams like Barcelona, Chelsea, etc. we could have come to the wrong conclusion that ball possession is statistically observing, of crucial importance, but the stats say otherwise. So, start by doing the same regression analysis for numerous factors to see which ones are statistically significant for winning. Once you do that, it is time to move on to the next step, multiple variables analysis, or multiple regression analysis.
Looking at the bigger picture using multiple regression analysis
Since you can't simply look at only ball possession or whether the form of the team is good or bad, you have to start looking at the bigger picture. All you need is a pen and a paper, or if you prefer, a spreadsheet. You can also use our tool to store information. When you do your analysis and have all of the variables, it is helpful to write them down so that you can observe them at the same time and come to the conclusion which ones are crucial for winning. This way, what you are doing is, rather than looking at one or two statistics, you can take into an account multiple variables which are based on past statistic and create a better future prediction. Cool, right?
So, let's take a closer look with an example: Tottenham vs. Chelsea on 24.11.2018.
Tottenham and Chelsea played a total of 52 games: 6 wins Tottenham, 19 drawn and 27 wins by Chelsea.
- A total of 146 goals, or 2,81 average goals per game out of whom 95 were scored by Chelsea.
- Chelsea had 21 clean sheets against Tottenham's 8.
- A total of 9 red cards (or one every fifth game).
- 198 yellow cards (an average of 3,81 per match).
- Tottenham won the last match, April 1st 2018 with 3 to 1.
- Current form of Tottenham: 4 wins and one loss.
- Current home form for Tottenham: 2 wins and 2 losses.
- Tottenham is playing at Wembley Stadium whilst waiting for their new stadium to open in 2019.
- Current form Chelsea: 3 wins, 2 draws.
- Current form away Chelsea: 4 wins, 1 draw.
- Tottenham lost the two matches at home recently to Manchester City and Liverpool FC.
- Kane recently scored a goal against Croatia that led England to the finals of the Nations League which is a big boost for his confidence.
- Chelsea scored 27 goals and conceived 8 in 12 matches.
- Tottenham scored 20 goals and conceived 10 in 12 matches.
- Mousa Dembele is injured from 3rd of November 2018.
Tottenham v Chelsea
This is a tough game to predict. If we observe the variables, we can predict either a draw 1:1 or a win by Chelsea as the most definite results (2:3). The numbers tell us that this is a passionate match.
There are a lot of goals on average and a high number of cards. You see, the thing with using regression analysis as a betting statistics compiler method is that it doesn't show us what is the cause of the events that occurred in the past.
The central part of regression analysis is choosing the right variables, without that, it may only confuse us. I would wager that Kane is going to score on this game as a bet because he just gave an amazingly important goal for England.
It is those kinds of stats that alter the mind of a person and boost their spirit that we can often overlook in statistical analyses. We forget about emotion and emotion drives statistics. You need to distinct between correlation and causation.
If one team always wins when playing home, it doesn't have to mean that whenever they play home, it means a win. Think of them not only as numbers but as people with families and bad days too. Maybe some players are terrible when it is cloudy. I myself feel tired on cloudy days.
What Betting Statistics Should You Learn to Avoid
First of all, never, I mean never, let yourself be an impulsive gambler. And you can avoid that by observing the betting statistics. Secondly, you always have to be aware of football fixes. What you want to avoid is getting lost in all the stats and accidentally focusing on the wrong type of betting statistics at the given moment. For an example, if a team plays from counter-attacks successfully, avoid focusing on ball possession.
Creating a betting sheet of your own
As we discussed, I suggest you to create your own unique approach to betting. I would suggest to start with:
- Home and away form
- Goals scored and conceived
- Injured players
- Changes in the team - manager, personal problems (divorce, etc.)
You can have all of this within our app too, and much more. We have the best prediction tool with 400+ tipsters using our services. The math behind betting statistics is quite substantial. Within our platform, you can see missing players due to injury or red card and pretty much every betting statistics in football. You can also add notes and the tool saves them and provides you with quick access to your desired information. What is amazing is that you can also see mutual opponents. For an example, both Chelsea and Tottenham played against Manchester City recently. We provide you with a lot of possibilities, stats, and in-play and pre-game odds. Click here for a 7 days free trial. As you are well aware by know, you have 7 days to quit and a lot to gain. Give it a try.If you want to learn more about betting statistics, the math behind it or similar, just comment below and we’ll do our best to quickly return the favour.
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