Football betting tips that every bettor needs to know.
Last time, we discussed the betting statistics in football. Knowing the stats is helpful but there are also numerous football betting tips that will help you to further improve your knowledge and use the betting statistics better than before. It doesn’t matter whether you are a professional bettor or an amateur, why shouldn’t you be aware of some betting tips in football? I always say that all of us know all of the tips and generally, answers to pretty much everything, we are just never aware of this until someone shows and explains it to us. At that moment, we are always amazed by the simplicity of everything. That is life if you ask me, everything is simple and yet we tend to make it all so complicated. All you got to do is look at things from a different perception. Dive into mine and share your thoughts afterwards!
The Mathematics of Bets
So, let’s just quickly go over some basic math. Let’s say you play a ticket with 6 matches and odds are 1.58; 2.50: 1.30; 1.40; 1.20; 1.80. So, you bet small with one slightly higher odd. Do you know how to calculate your winning on your own? The formula is simple, you simply multiply all of your odds and multiply that with your bet stake.Your end odd = 1.58x2.50x1.30x1.40x1.20x1.80 = 15.52824 (for esthetical purposes, we will write 15.53).So, your end odd is 15.53. If you bet 50 euros you will gain = 50x15.53 = approximately 776 euros. This sounds appealing, but you have 6 matches and your probability of success is not that high. What do 15.53 decimal odds say about your implied probability?
Your probability of success = 1/decimal odds.
So your probability, in this case, is 0.064. Doesn’t sound that good, right? But that is if we look at the whole odds. But if we look at odds separately you stand at: 0.63; 0.4: 0.77; 0.71; 0.83; and 0.56. So these are all probabilities of success for each of your 6 games. We also need to take into consideration your 1/6 odds that you will guess all six matches. But we can’t look at it completely that way. So in this case, you also need to ask yourself: does an odd of 2.50 provide value or have I added it to increase my winnings? If you based that bet on good value and research, go for it. In other cases, if you drop that match, your end odds stay at 6.21. Your winnings, in this case, are 50x6.21 = approximately 310 euros.So, your winnings decrease but your probability of success increases. This is why you need to avoid big scores and rely on math and long-term gains. If you gain 200 euros each week and increase your stake, in one month, you’ll be gaining around 1000 euros if you bet carefully, based on stats and whilst avoiding compulsive bets.
Keeping a track record – Building your own football betting tips.
Another thing you need to do is keep a record of your bets. Related to math, you can follow a simple math equation. If we say that odds are 2.0. Let’s say that in 100 matches, 40 ends in a win and 60 in a loss. This means that you are losing money. We can show this in a simple equation: Y = X*Z where Z is the success rate and X is the average odds of betting. In this case, Z = 0.4 % and X = 2. So Y = 0.8. If Y is less than 1, this means that you are losing money and need to change your game. So, you can do a couple of things:
- To improve the probability of success by betting on lower odds;
- To stick with the same odds but do more research in betting statistics;
Commencing Countdown, Engines on
Whenever you want to sit down and pick your battles, get yourself in the mood. Focus, focus and focus. I don’t know what helps you focus but you do. Just do it! Anyway, my honest suggestion is to never bet along the way, it makes no sense. It is like everything that becomes automatic. The moment you realize that you are in a rut, get out of it. Go for a walk. Clear your head. I’m talking in general, not just betting related.Try to find at least one hour of your time for placing the proper bets and finding the matches that you can predict. You know, sometimes I see a match and I know it is a tough one. But something draws me to it, I want to crack it. Sometimes I do try and crack it, but if it is a tough one, you really need to truly sit on it and think it through. Derbies are always hard to predict.When both teams have amazing football players and excellent managers, you honestly can’t know which way the wind is going to blow. These football matches can go either way. All that it takes is one masterpiece and when you have 22 players and each and every one of them is capable of geniality, it gets really tough to predict the game. However, I entice you to try it, I know that I do. But you need time.
Be safe or chase high odds?
So, first, you have to figure out whether you want to bet safely or chase high odds. Everybody wants to bet on high odds since high odds mean high gains. But, there is another approach to this. If you are betting on low odds moderately, your gains will increase over time. It will be slower than getting that big payout but still, odds are on your side. Still, even matches with low odds turn to losses time to time which is why you always need to check the betting statistics in football and carefully approach the problematic.For you see, nothing is truly predictable. There is no winning secret, just knowledge can help you choose your bets carefully and even then, you have to be prepared that some unforeseen chain of events can lead to a loss. Remember, everybody has a bad day, even the mighty giants of football.
Low or High Odds – Chasing the Value of the Underdog
The best betting tips in football that I can give you is to start low if you are a novice and gradually build your way up to high odds. I approach this by creating one ticket with low odds of about 4 to 6 matches, one with mixed and one that is chasing one high odd (a single).Anyway, let’s talk about chasing the underdog. From time to time, a team emerges and starts playing the season of their dream. We all remember Leicester and how they won the Premier League. Who would have said that Leicester was going to become a champion prior to that season? That is the trickiest and most important football betting tip that I can give you, how to spot value in a team that is the underdog. This requires a lot of practice and continual monitoring of the market. The ability to spot value in a team doesn’t come overnight and there is no secret recipe for acquiring this ability. All you need is practice.So what I suggest is always keep track of all your bets and ideas. This way, you’ll be constantly learning and developing as a football expert and bettor. And whatever you do, don’t dream of a big win. That dream will lead you to put your guard down and bet impulsively. You don’t want that ever to happen. You must be methodical, objective and rely on statistics. Don’t allow emotion to drive you when betting.
So, I presume your question is: How can I learn to spot an underdog and chase high odds?
The answer is not simple
First of all, track the market, injured players and transfers. Check the change of managers. Check if there is a team with young players that are gradually starting to improve their winning consistency (like Eintracht Frankfurt for example). Now, start writing everything. Be methodical and clear in your writings. Eibar recently won against Real Madrid. Check their team, or check other teams that are going to play with Real Madrid who is on a bad streak at the moment and you might be able to capitalize on their bad run. But don’t be hasty.
Start by calculating the amount of money that you can lose. That is your weekly or monthly betting bankroll. Now, there are numerous football betting tips but the best one is to create your own model and keep track of it. So, whether you opted to chase low or high odds, handicaps or goal differences, think in terms of time. At the end of every month, look at your book and check whether you are in the plus or minus and what can you learn from it.
Football Betting Tips – Possibilities You Can Chase
The most popular betting type is certainly a full-time result. As you are well aware there is 1/X/2 (Home Win/Draw/Away Win). Another popular fulltime result betting is Asian Handicap. To understand Asian Handicap is not that hard, but you do need to understand the basic principles of mathematics.
So, with the Asian Handicap, you can’t bet on a draw, just a win and there is a goal handicap involved. If the goal handicap is a +, even a draw means that your bet is successful. Let’s say that the handicap is -0.5 on the home team and +0.5 on the guest team. After fulltime, we deduct the handicap from the fulltime score if the team has a minus handicap. In another case, if your team has a plus handicap than you add that value to the number of goals that they scored. Therefore, if the end result is 1:1, it will be 0.5:1 if your bet was on the home team (we deduct -0.5) and 1:1.5 if your bet was on the guest team (it was a positive handicap so we add +0.5).And that is the catch with the Asian Handicap if your team still leads once you deduct the handicap, it means that you won. Asian Handicap bets open a whole world of possibilities because a 4:0 loss that turns to 4:2 could make a lot of difference for you if the handicap is high. It’s thrilling, exciting and a good bet.
Double Chance Odds
If you want to bet safe, and I mean really safe, double chance odds might be your type of bets. Double Chance Odds are lower but they give you a 66.6…7 % chance. I know; the number is creepy. Anyways, double chance means that you bet either on:
- Home Win and Draw
- Away Win and Draw
- Home Win and Away Win
So, if you are positive that one team won’t lose, but you are not certain if a draw might fall, you can always chase double chance odds. Your winnings will be lower but if you play around 6 double chance odds matches, your earnings will increase nicely. As I said before, don’t chase the big score, be methodical. If you find yourself in a bad run, turn to double chance odds just to break the streak of losing.
Football Betting Tips for Magicians – Guessing the Correct Score
You can always bet on the correct score. This is, for me, undoubtedly the hardest type of betting but hey, it just might be your thing if you are clairvoyant. Just kidding, you can always follow the football betting statistics to guess the correct score. However, there is one side of correct score betting that provides better possibilities. My football betting tips always include the so-called “dutching”. This term means when you bet that the correct result will be let’s say 3:1 but you also cover a variety of other potential scorelines like 3:0, 2:1, 2:0. This way, you are increasing your probability of success but the gains will be lower of course.
Halftime Fulltime Football Betting Tips
Another type of football bets that you can work with is halftime fulltime. This is an interesting way of betting because you are actually participating in the full match. One of the highest odds lay in the turnover. For example, home team leads on halftime 1:0 but loses fulltime 1:2 or 1:3, etc. I remember that my friend tracked Barcelona’s games maybe 10 seasons in the past. That season, it was very common that Barcelona managed to pull off turnovers. He tracked the statistics and started to chase that turnover win. In the end, he put 20 euros on turnover and won around 300 euros or so.However, the best football betting tips regarding this particular type of betting is to chase win-win or draw-win. You need to follow the statistics of the teams. Maybe the best win-win or 1-1 is when you have an absolute favourite and a complete outsider. In these cases, the odds are usually pretty low on just win. Let’s say around 1.10 and if you bet 1-1 they increase to 1.40 or 1.50. This is a nice increase in winnings; however, you need to be careful. Always follow the statistics. So, look at the team you are betting on. Check the stats for whether that team scores in the first half on average more than 80% against weaker teams. After that, check how many goals they score in these types of matches. Check the head-to-head too. Always check head-to-head. Look at the stats, place your bet and keep track of it.
Betting on Goals Scored
Another option is to bet on a number of goals scored. This may be the simplest form of betting. When you bet that over 3 goals are going to fall during the match, you really don’t care about the result. If it is 2:1, 2:2, 1:2, 1:3, etc. As long as the number of goals is 3 or more than 3, you are a winner. So, you can follow some betting statistics in football and remember to keep a track of your thoughts, ideas and bets on paper.
I Hate Draws – What can I do?
One of the best football betting tips is “Draw no bet”. This means that you can either opt for home or away win. If the match ends in a draw, you get your money back. Of course, the odds are a bit lower but this type of betting provides amazing opportunities that you can capitalize on. Favourites rarely lose to outsiders but draws happen. The probability that a complete outsider can get a draw against a strong opponent is higher than the probability that they may win. It is simple math. So, if you want to play it safe, you can always chase these bets or combine them with Asian Handicap and such.
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