Football Asian Handicap betting model: win twice the three outcomes of the match.

The football betting field, as the most frequented sports betting game, has the biggest audience in the world.
Based on probability theories, the betting games are described by an important number of playing models.
Actually, with the Odds based betting and the expected goals betting models, the Football Asian Handicap betting model is an important strategic model that has made a respectable reputation.
This model is particular and it is built on a different way from the two others.

The fact is, the football Asian handicap uses different principles and is therefore different from the common betting models.
This implies a different set of calculations that need to be performed on a different set of inputs to obtain a different set of outputs.
Different and particular process that describes the football Asian handicap betting model marks the model as it is.
Indeed, it makes it a challenging strategy that may profit the bettors more than it would profit the bookmakers.

Definition

Besides, the football Asian handicap betting model uses the particular definition of the goal handicap in order to convert the collected data that relate to the involved teams into probabilities and odds. In fact, the calculation of the football Asian handicaps differs from the other models by neglecting or more accurately, not considering one of the eventual results of the match. Indeed, the results are (1) and (2) to designate the team the winning team, and (x) to designate a draw match.

These are the factors of perhaps most of betting models.
In contrast, the football Asian handicap model doesn’t recognize the (x) as an outcome and the, therefore, draw matches don't count, and there is no winning and no losing.
Yet the draw result is not considered, there is a particular calculation that may serve as a replacement.
Hence, the draw betting results are interesting to know. Besides, this factor is the most important side of the Asian handicap betting model.

Advantages

This Asian handicap betting model includes some options, or markets, that are interesting to know. The bettors have the choice to play one or the other according to their budget and the amount of money they can risk. In other words, the model seems to have some options which would increase the probability of winning the bets and of course, appeal more bettors to the game.

Besides, the application of the football Asian handicap model requires a good knowledge of the sports betting odds in general, as an initiation for better understanding and better application. 
Under those circumstances, the football Asian handicap model should reveal some advantages. However, bettors may expect some surprises due to the eventual downsides that may hide beneath the positive face of the present model.

Defining the Football Asian Handicap betting model:

The football Asian handicap is a particular model of betting. Indeed, it focuses on the nonnull results of the match. Thus, the model eliminates the “draw” result. Also, the model associates the playing team with new qualifications that are more adapted to the principles of the model. Basically, this particularity differentiates the model from the other models built upon the 1X2 outcomes.

Actually, the Asian handicap model of betting appears to ensure greater winning opportunities to the bettors.
The absence of the draw result has a great impact on the winning and loss calculation as well as on the risk margins.
The draw result is perceived as “null” and the bets are adjourned. The bettors can’t lose their stakes.

As a matter of fact, the football Asian handicap uses a few data and, more precisely the values of expected goals betting model.
Somehow, the data management and the interpretation of the results differ profoundly. The elimination of the draw result from the betting eventualities affects the profit calculations.

Furthermore, it is the case of winning by guessing right and possibly winning by guessing wrong.
There is no wonder why this model is gaining more popularity and why ore bettors are using it.

In fact, the overall system seems to benefit from the expected goals system. The collected data are used to determine the susceptibility of the considered team to accept goals in its net.
This new perception modulates the betting sessions and makes them more challenging.

Basics of the football Asian handicap betting model:

The football Asian handicap is based on two outcomes instead of three. That is to say, the model gives the importance to the nonnull results. In other words, the draw result is rejected and considered as if the match hasn't taken place. According to this model, there is a winner and a loser.

Furthermore, the model defines the concept of the “handicap” which is related to the susceptibility to score goals. 
In fact, the model refers to the two involved teams as favorite and underdog. The significances of the two words are related to the handicap assigned to each team.

• First of all, the team with the higher susceptibility for receiving goals is qualified by the underdog. Subsequently, it will be associated with a positive handicap because it is the less expected to score. 
• In the opposite, the favorite team will be, then, the team that has the lower susceptibility of receiving goals. Subsequently, it will be assigned a negative handicap referring to a higher expectation of scoring goals.
• As a result, the draw result is not considered. Somehow, the compensation consists in the “draw betting results”. The calculation of the profit may explain this fact clearer.

The basics of the football Asian handicap appear to be reduced to the fact of guessing which team will win without worrying about the draw result. The positive handicap is interpreted by the presence of “handicaps” for scoring goals. The lower is the handicap; the higher is the susceptibility to score.

Equally, the higher is the handicap; the lower will be the susceptibility of scoring goals.

Eventually, the football Asian handicap differs from the common soccer betting models. The two outcomes property influences the calculation method as well as the application of this model in betting sessions.

Calculation of the football Asian handicap probabilities:

The calculation of the football Asian handicap requires a few sets of variables. To put it in another way, it is a rate that describes the probabilities of scoring goals. Also, it refers to the level of handicaps that the team expresses during the match versus the defense of the adverse team. Indeed, the calculation requires the collection of data regarding the history of the two teams. These data are in this case related to the accepted goals.

On the other hand, the overall calculation uses the expected goals (xG) cipher. For example, in a match that involves team 1 versus team 2, The favored team will have an expected goals probability (xG1) and the underdog team will have an expected goals probability xG2. Then the Asian handicap (AH) of the favored team will be calculated as follow:

AH = 0-(xG1 – xG2)
=xG2-xG1

Suffice to say, the result of this calculation is obviously a negative number, explaining the negative Asian handicap for the favored team.
The system here is focused on one team rather than all the match.

The model is not complicated. However, understanding it may take you a while. The Asian handicap model can display values of the ¼ goal as an advantage. This representation can confuse bettors. The real significance of this representation is to provide the player with values as close as possible from the reality.

That being the case, comparing these values with the values of the expected goals, the advantages margins are more flexible (1/4 pace against the 1, 2, and 3 advantages of the classical betting models).

Advantages of the football Asian handicap betting model:

Actually, the Asian handicap betting model includes several options. These options are the variants of the model and they offer more winning opportunities to the bettors.
Due to the ¼ pace of advantages, the model has several classes or options. The definition of the advantages gives more opportunities for winning.

In fact, the classical models give exact advantages (-1, +1…) with high loss risks.
The Asian handicap model divides the advantages in half and quarter; the risks are subsequently divided and reduced.

Besides, the definition of the draw result is different from the classical models. There is a real draw result which refers to the situation that there is no winner of the match.
There is also the draw betting result. Above all, the most obvious advantage of the football Asian handicap betting model is the possibility of refunds.
This possibility reduces dramatically the profit for the bookmakers and ensures preserves the budget of the bettors.

Also, the betting model allows dividing the stakes and betting on two different outcomes. The use of the expected goals factor can increase the chance of winning at least half of the stake waged on one or the other outcome.

Applying the football Asian handicap model in betting in general:

The application of the football Asian handicap model in betting requires knowing the several options that this model offers.
Actually, the options are obtained by adding or taking off a 0.25 from the calculated advantage. Somehow, some options are more famous and more used than the others.
This supposes the use of one or the other option as a strategic choice. The bettor has, therefore, to know perfectly when to use which option.

On the other hand, the application of the football Asian handicap model requires the creation of a table. The calculated handicaps are put along with the eventual outcomes of the match.
The different values go from -2 and with the pace of 0.25, they grow to reach the value of +2.

The Asian handicap options bring predictions closer to reality. with this in mind, the bettors and the bookmakers can easily secure their winnings by wagering partial amounts.

The several values of the handicap are indeed the betting options and they are used to “secure” the budget, especially with the possible and unpredictable variance of the Odds.

The profit calculation using the football Asian handicap model:

General table of the Asian handicap markets:
The football Asian handicap market modifies the calculation of profit as well. In fact, the calculation of the profit s from the betting sessions requires building a calculation table. The understanding of the football Asian handicap markets is at the base of the better application. The following example uses team A to build an Asian handicap table. For convenience, the table will consider the handicaps (markets) -0.5, -0.25, 0, 0.25, and 0.

Handicap    Outcomes    Betting results
-0.5    Win    Win the stake
    Lose    Lose the stake
    Draw    Lose the half of the stake
-0.25    Win    Win the stake
    Lose    Lose the stake
    Draw    Lose the half of the stake
0    Win    Win
    Lose    Lose the stake
    Draw    The stake is returned
0.25    Win    Lose the stake
    Lose    win the stake
    Draw    Lose the half of the stake
0.5    Win    Lose the stake
    Lose    win the stake
    Draw    Lose the half of the stake

Table results

The table as built shows the possibility of winning the half of the stake when the result is a draw. This situation is possible with the handicaps +/- 0.25, 0.5.
On the other hand, the handicap “0” is particular and can preserve the whole stake and refund it to the bettors.
In other words, when the team has a negative handicap, the bettor wins by betting “win” and loses when betting "lose".

The particularity of the Asian handicap betting model is that the goal expectancy factor influences the betting results.
This is a way to prevent huge losses when betting using a European handicap or any other 1X2 model.

The football Asian handicap and the draw betting results:

The draw betting result refers to the combination of the handicap and the expectancy of the goals.
Speaking about this, it is important to signal that the football Asian handicap betting market can display goals’ expectancy of 1.5, 1.75 or so.

These expectancies are the results of adding –or subtracting- a [1x(0.25)] or a [2x(0.25)] factor to the goal expectancy.
This operation helps to reduce the loss risks and guarantee a reasonable amount from the bet stakes.

This explains the implication of the expected goals factor in the calculation of the Asian handicap and the calculation of the profit.

Putting aside the draw betting results, the values for the handicaps allow determining exactly who won the bet.
As matter of fact, the favorite team has to score goals above the expected in order to ensure the winning of the bet.

Not to mention that the underdog team has to accept goals more than expected to ensure the winning of the bet.
Actually, the draw matches are perceived according to the expected goals. The handicap “0” is perceived as a real draw.
The game will be void. The use of the quarter and the half goal expectation are a certain way of saving the budget from the total loss.

Conclusion:

The football Asian handicap is an innovative way of betting. This model proposes the replacement of the 1X2 models which are more profiting to the bookmakers than to the bettors.
It uses the expected goals model to calculate parameters that give a negative handicap to the favorite team and a positive handicap to the underdog team.

The bettor has then to choose a team to bet on. The few steps that come after assigning the goal expectancy to the team are critical. The calculation of the draw betting results is different.
The proper draw result (no victory and no defeat) would represent a void bet.

Besides, the model introduces the 0.25 pace and creates new betting options. 
This property revolutionized the football betting systems and distinguished the Asian handicap from the European handicap.

Moreover, the betting model as defined seems to be more related to one involved team rather than being about the result or the scores.The bettors assign handicaps and then make their bets.
They bet on the favourite team or on the underdog by assigning “win” or “lose”.

They choose a handicap that will determine the final betting results and will regulate the stakes to win. Each handicap stands as a separate market which has some advantages and of course some disadvantages.

In the end, the football Asian handicap is a growing market that attracts more and more bettors. It represents a high-effective betting strategy which ensures more opportunities for the bettors. The disadvantages of the system are still to discover. Until now, the football Asian handicap betting model seems to excel the other betting systems.

The disadvantages are, therefore, minimal and would not have major impacts on the betting sessions.